Consumers in Holding Pattern as Trade War Pause Nears its End
Zeta Global, the AI Marketing Cloud, released the Zeta Economic Index (ZEI) for June 2025, which reveals U.S. consumers in a holding pattern as macro risks mount. With the trade war pause nearing its end, the headline Economic Index Score slipped to 68.0, a 1.3% month-over-month (MoM) decline – even as the Economic Stability Index held at 65.8, underscoring that households are staying financially steady amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
Powered by Zeta’s proprietary Generative AI and real-time behavioral data from over 245 million U.S. consumers, the Zeta Economic Index (ZEI) synthesizes more than 20 proprietary indicators, including spending, browsing, credit signals, and more across key sectors. Unlike lagging benchmarks or survey-based gauges, the ZEI delivers a high-frequency view of consumer intent and activity, giving marketers an early warning of shifting economic tides.
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June’s data reflects consumers in a deliberate recalibration. Retail interest cooled by 5.1 points month-over-month, as springtime pull-forwards normalized. Credit Line Expansion Intent climbed 7.2%, healthy by historical standards but off its recent peak. Time Browsing Online ticked up 2.0%, driven largely by deal-seeking and summer planning, while major life moves remained on ice, with the New Mover Index down 18.8%. With the trade-war pause nearing its end, households are balancing selective spending with financial resilience—supported by rising Job Market Sentiment, which edged up 2.3% MoM even as overall momentum cools.
“The June ZEI isn’t a downturn – it’s a recalibration,” said David A. Steinberg, Co-Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Zeta Global. “With the trade-war pause ending and prices set to potentially increase, consumers are weighing every purchase more carefully. Marketers who tap into real-time behavioral insights can turn that caution into competitive advantage, anticipating shifting priorities and acting ahead of the curve. During times like these, we find our clients depend on Zeta even more to cost-effectively manage and optimize their marketing and CRM strategies.”
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Broad-Based Sector Softening Reflects Consumer Selectivity
Beyond retail’s notable decline, Financial Services and Technology also softened significantly, declining 3.5 and 2.5 points respectively, indicating reduced consumer engagement with banking, insurance, and digital products. Entertainment dropped 2.8 points, while Travel slipped by 0.9 points, which are both modest declines that may reflect shifting summer priorities.
The only sectors to register gains were Healthcare, up 1.8 points, and Dining, which saw a minor 1.1-point lift. This pattern suggests consumers are maintaining engagement across categories but with notably less intensity and greater selectivity, which is consistent with broader signs of economic moderation.
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Source – Businesswire
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