As value-driven shopping becomes the defining force in U.S. grocery behavior, Ibotta a performance marketing platform for promotionshas, released its 2026 State of Spend report, revealing a fundamental shift in how consumers evaluate brands, promotions, and purchase decisions. The study shows that 62 percent of shoppers now prioritize price over brand name, reshaping how CPG marketers approach trial, loyalty, and long-term growth.
Based on a survey of more than 5,000 grocery shoppers, the report finds that while inflation continues to influence behavior, its perceived impact is easing. Sixty-seven percent of consumers still report feeling negatively affected by inflation, down three percentage points year over year. Rather than returning to pre-inflation habits, however, shoppers have adapted by adopting what Ibotta describes as “defensive” strategies that emphasize flexibility, deal-seeking, and retailer switching.
“The findings in our State of Spend report confirm a critical shift: value isn’t just a trend, but the center of gravity for the American consumer,” said Chris Riedy, chief revenue officer at Ibotta. “Years of economic volatility have forged a new type of shopper, which represents a massive opportunity for CPGs to redefine how they show up.”
That shift is evident in where consumers are shopping. The report shows growing traffic toward value-focused retailers, with increased share for Dollar General and Walmart, alongside a broader deprioritization of brand loyalty. More than six in ten shoppers now say brand names matter less than price, signaling a tougher environment for national brands relying on familiarity alone.
At the same time, shopping behavior is becoming less structured. Pre-trip planning continues to decline, with only 68 percent of shoppers making lists, down from 75 percent in 2023. Nearly one-third now shop with only a loose idea or no plan at all, increasing openness to in-the-moment discovery. According to the report, 68 percent of shoppers who encountered a new product through a promotion went on to purchase it, underscoring the role of offers in driving incremental trial.
Despite this openness, switching remains difficult. The data reveals a consistent “74/26” split in grocery carts, with repeat purchases dominating and only 26 percent of items representing new trials. In high-loyalty categories like food and beverage, deep discounts are often required to break through, with many shoppers needing price reductions of 25 percent or more to consider a new brand.
Private label products continue to benefit from this environment. Confidence that name brands deliver superior quality has dropped to 38 percent, while 44 percent of shoppers say they are buying more store brands. Most plan to maintain or increase private label purchasing in 2026.
Still, the report highlights an important exception. Consumers remain willing to pay more for “better-for-you” products tied to health and wellness, especially when supported by cash back offers. Riedy will discuss these findings alongside PepsiCo leadership at ADWEEK House during the Big Game 2026, as brands reassess how value, promotions, and relevance intersect in the modern grocery journey.
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