Infobip is forecasting another record-breaking year for brand-to-consumer messaging as retailers embrace AI, mobile commerce and richer communication technology to elevate shopping experience. According to new projections from the global communications platform, more than 3.9 billion messages will be exchanged during this year’s holiday shopping period. This marks a significant 15 percent increase from the previous year and illustrates how conversational engagement has become central to the buyer journey.
Among all digital channels, Rich Communication Services is expected to show the fastest acceleration. Worldwide RCS activity is projected to rise 161 percent on Black Friday and an even more striking 269 percent on Cyber Monday. The sharp jump reflects growing adoption as smartphone manufacturers, including Apple, support the format and as brands embrace conversational messaging with richer media and enhanced interactivity. Despite the rapid rise of RCS, SMS continues to serve as the strongest retail messaging channel, accounting for nearly 2.7 billion interactions globally during the peak shopping window.
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In the United States, SMS usage alone is expected to surpass 1.9 billion messages, while RCS volumes will exceed 57 million, representing a steep increase compared to 2024. Other digital touchpoints also continue to gain momentum, with WhatsApp engagement up 44 percent and email traffic expected to rise by more than 50 percent on Cyber Monday. Survey data collected by Infobip reveals that U.S. shoppers plan to spend between 250 and 1,000 dollars on Black Friday, emphasizing sustained consumer enthusiasm.
European retail engagement remains strong, although spending patterns reflect some regional caution. RCS is expected to expand more than sixfold on Black Friday and fivefold on Cyber Monday across the continent. WhatsApp usage could nearly triple, while email continues to hold its position as a leading promotional and transactional tool, recording growth of more than 50 percent. SMS interactions are projected to climb 37 percent on Black Friday in Europe. Consumer spending in the United Kingdom is largely concentrated below 250 pounds, but a notable share of shoppers expect to spend up to 1,000 pounds, contributing to significant combined retail revenue. In Italy, Spain and Germany, spending expectations primarily fall between 250 and 500 euros, pointing to a stable but measured retail environment.
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Channel preference also varies within Europe. Email dominates for order confirmations and promotional communication across many markets, while Southern European consumers lean more heavily on SMS. Meanwhile, richer interactive messaging is gaining ground in Northern Europe, signaling a broader shift toward AI-driven commerce conversations.
Ben Lewis, Vice President of Marketing and Growth at Infobip, described the transformation taking place in retail engagement. “Black Friday and Cyber Monday have evolved from single-day events into month-long conversations,” he said. “With Apple adopting RCS and brands focusing on hyper-personalized experiences, AI-powered conversational commerce is transforming retailer-consumer engagement.”
Infobip’s outlook for 2025 highlights how omni-channel communication continues to influence customer expectations and purchasing behavior, with brands now competing as much on connection and convenience as on price.
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