As small businesses look ahead to the coming year, a sense of cautious optimism for 2026 is emerging, tempered by significant uncertainty about growth, costs, and the pace of change. New survey data from Thryv shows that while some owners see opportunities on the horizon, many remain hesitant about what lies ahead and how prepared they are to respond.
The findings are based on a survey of small and midsize businesses conducted in mid December 2025. When respondents were asked which business factors made them feel optimistic, ranging from the broader economy and competitive positioning to technology advances such as artificial intelligence and hiring capabilities, the most common response was “none of the above.” Thirty nine percent of small business owners selected that option, underscoring a widespread lack of confidence as 2026 approaches.
There were, however, modest bright spots. Nearly one third of respondents said they felt optimistic about the economy, while slightly more than one quarter expressed confidence in their ability to outperform competitors. These pockets of optimism suggest that while uncertainty dominates, a meaningful segment of small businesses still believes opportunity exists, particularly for those able to differentiate themselves in challenging conditions.
Looking more closely at concerns for 2026, growth anxiety stands out. Nearly half of respondents, 49 percent, cited their ability to grow their business in the current economic environment as their top concern. Rising employment costs followed closely, with 44 percent identifying labor expenses as a major challenge. By contrast, issues such as tariffs and access to financing ranked much lower, and roughly one third of respondents said none of the listed concerns were top of mind.
“Small businesses are entering 2026 with a mix of hope and hesitation,” said Grant Freeman, president of Thryv. “While many expect growth, nearly a third remain unsure. That uncertainty can stall progress. The businesses that embrace technology and adapt quickly will be the ones that turn cautious optimism into concrete success.”
Despite ongoing discussion around artificial intelligence across the business world, the survey suggests many small businesses remain unconvinced of its near term impact. Two thirds of respondents, or 67 percent, said they do not believe AI will affect their business in 2026. Views were similarly split when owners were asked whether they currently have the tools they need, including AI, to support growth. Thirty eight percent said yes, 29 percent said no, and 33 percent said they were unsure.
“This survey demonstrates that not all small businesses see the transformative power of AI,” Freeman added. “Those who are already leveraging AI to streamline operations and uplevel their marketing have a clear competitive edge.”
The results point to a defining tension heading into the new year. While cautious optimism for 2026 exists, uncertainty around growth, costs, and technology readiness remains high. For many small businesses, the coming months may determine whether hesitation gives way to action. Those that invest in tools, processes, and adaptability are likely to be better positioned to navigate volatility and convert optimism into measurable progress.
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