The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) has revised its 2025 U.S. advertising spend forecast, lowering it from an initial 7.3% growth estimate to 5.7%, reflecting growing concerns among advertisers about tariffs and broader macroeconomic challenges. While ad spend for the first half of the year remained consistent with earlier predictions, tariff worries and shifting economic sentiments led buyers to adjust their second-half budgets downward to 5.0%, resulting in a subdued full-year outlook. The revision is based on feedback from over 200 brand and agency buyers collected as part of IAB’s September 2025 Outlook Study, which explores ad spend trends, strategic shifts, and challenges in the current market.
Tariff concerns loom large, with 91% of buyers expressing apprehension over how trade policies will impact media budgets. Industries like automotive, retail, and consumer electronics heavy users of imported goods face intense pressure to balance rising costs with the need to sustain performance. Between 62% and 69% of marketers in these sectors expect significant impact, prompting many to recalibrate their spending strategies accordingly. Among the other top challenges for marketers in the latter half of 2025 are continuing macroeconomic headwinds and evolving consumer behaviors, cited by 41% and 40% of buyers respectively.
Marketing Technology Insights: Reshift Media Launches New Global Website for World Franchise Council
Despite the cautious environment, advertisers are sharpening their focus on measurable performance, with customer acquisition leading priorities for 64% of buyers and an increased emphasis on driving repeat purchases. In this context, certain digital channels remain bright spots, expected to deliver robust growth: social media is forecast to expand by 14.3%, retail media by 13.2%, and connected TV (CTV) by 11.4%. Chris Bruderle, IAB Vice President of Industry Insights and Content Strategy, noted, “If consumers are pulling back, that means every single dollar of ad spend has to earn a return and that’s more important than ever for auto, retail, and consumer electronics advertisers”.
Marketing Technology Insights: Stagwell Study, Canadians Urge Brands to Advertise in Trusted News Environments
Meanwhile, traditional media channels continue to see declines. Linear TV ad spend is now projected to fall by 14.4%, a steeper drop than the 12.7% decline forecast earlier in the year. Other traditional media categories face an even sharper downturn, with a 3.4% decline expected compared to January’s projection of 1.5%. The overall buyer sentiment remains cautiously positive, with confidence that digital media’s measurement capabilities will sustain its appeal despite tighter budgets. IAB CEO David Cohen reflected, “The silver lining in all of this is that the overall attitude of buyers remains positive. Budgets may tighten somewhat, but they’re confident that digital media can deliver the measurable results they need.” He added that the updated forecast aims to help the industry navigate the remainder of 2025 while preparing for 2026.
Marketing Technology Insights: Clear Channel Outdoor Unveils Inflight Insights for Real-Time OOH Data
For media inquiries, you can write to our MarTech Newsroom at sudipto@intentamplify.com
